• The home team running game vs the visiting team running defense
• The home team passing game vs the visiting passing defense
• The visiting team rushing game vs the home team rushing defense
• The visiting team passing game vs the home team passing defense

Steelers vs Broncos
DEN defense has the edge in passing against PIT offense
PIT offense has the edge in rushing against DEN defense
PIT defense will kill in passing against DEN offense
PIT defense has a slight edge in rushing against DEN offense
The Broncos defense is good but the Steelers defense is better.The Broncos offense is poor and the Steelers offense is better.
Steelers by 7.

Lions vs Saints
DET offense will control in passing against NOS defense
NOS defense has a slight edge in rushing against DET offense
NOS offense will kill in passing against DET defense
DET defense has no advantage in rushing against NOS offense
The Lions will pass and the Saints will pass. Saints by 6.

Bengals vs Texans
HOU defense has no advantage in passing against CIN offense
HOU defense will kill in rushing against CIN offense
HOU offense has no advantage in passing against CIN defense
CIN defense has clear advantage in rushing against HOU offense
The Bengals need to run to win this game but it is going to be difficult. So this game comes down to who has the better passing game. Bengals.

Giants vs Falcons
ATL defense has a slight edge in passing against NYG offense
NYG offense has a slight edge in rushing against ATL defense
ATL offense has the edge in passing against NYG defense
ATL offense has no advantage in rushing against NYG defense
Close game, go with the home team by 3.

• Saints  45-20   minus 10.5 over the Lions
• Bengals  19-17   plus 4 over the Texans

Niners  24-10   minus 10 over the Rams     (Niners 34   Rams 27)
Straight up: Correct   With Spread: Incorrect

Giants  30-23   minus 3 over the Cowboys     (Giants 31   Cowboys 14)
Straight up: Correct   With Spread: Correct

Chiefs  19-13   plus 3 over the Broncos     (Chiefs 7   Broncos 3)
Straight up: Correct   With Spread: Correct

Raiders  29-23   minus 3 over the Chargers     (Chargers 38   Raiders 26)
Straight up: Incorrect   With Spread: Incorrect

Seahawks  21-16   plus 3 over the Cardinals     (Cardinals 23   Seahawks 20)
Straight up: Incorrect   With Spread: Incorrect

Hank said on his show that he was 6 games over .500 but… I don’t have it.

His season totals are 41-27 straight Up and 35-43-0 against the spread and lost $1230.00

• Broncos  13-16   plus 8.5 over the Steelers
• Lions  35-38   plus 10.5 over the Saints
• Bengals  16-17   plus 3 over the Texans
• Falcons  24-21   plus 3 over the Giants

Eagles  30-16   minus 7.5 over the Redskins     (Eagles 34   Redskins 10)
Straight up: Correct   With Spread: Correct

Ravens  19-13   minus 3 over the Bengals     (Ravens 24   Bengals 16)
Straight up: Correct   With Spread: Correct

Colts  15-11   plus 3 over the Jaguars     (Jaguars 19   Colts 13)
Straight up: Incorrect   With Spread: Incorrect

Texans  17-14   plus 2.5 over the Titans     (Titans 23   Texans 22)
Straight up: Incorrect   With Spread: Correct

Broncos  20-14   minus 2.5 over the Chiefs     (Chiefs 7   Broncos 3)
Straight up: Incorrect   With Spread: Incorrect

Chris said on his show that he was 45-40 for the season and that’s only 85 games. I have him at 89 games. I’ll check it out and make sure we are right.
His season totals are 48-36 straight Up and 43-45-1 against the spread and lost $650.00

Confidence Wk17

The Cowboys-Giants game got moved to Saturday night.

Jets  27-21   minus 3 over the Giants
Titans  24-13   minus 7.5 over the Jaguars
Raiders  23-20   plus 2 over the Chiefs
Eagles  30-26   plus 2 over the Cowboys
Saints  30-20   minus 6.5 over the Falcons

Patriots  -   minus 9.5 over the Dolphins
Cardinals  -   plus 4.5 over the Bengals
Giants  -   plus 3 over the Jets
Chargers  -   plus 2over the Lions
Eagles  -   plus 1.5 over the Cowboys

What’s inside?

• League records based on conditional criteria, like home, away, favorite, underdog, division and league records.
• Team records against the spread as home, away, favorite and underdog team
• The NFL Ref Checker. Find out who is covering your game and see what his stats are. Not published ANYWHERE but the GVGReport.
• Penalties per team
• Brutality Index. Why are the Cardinals the most brutal team?
• Strength of schedule. Have the Cowboys really faced the best opponents?
• Schedule toughness. Do the Raiders really have the toughest schedules?
• League schedules with results and spreads
• Confidence points based on point spread for your comparison versus the rest of the universe
• ESPN expert picks and results analyzed in eight categories. Who should you base your picks on?
• Team turn overs, offense, defense, interceptions and fumbles
• Team passer and rusher ratings for offense and defense. See how your team stacks up to the opponent. I use this for game predictions.
• Team box stats. First downs, points for and against, completions, attempts, yards, interceptions, fumbles, touch downs, rushes, yards, total offensive and defensive plays
• Team records in time zones traveled, records based on day of the week and time of day.

My comprehensive NFL data package that you can use to study the NFL from the inside out and from the top to the bottom. Look for trends and try to get an angle on predicting games, start an interesting conversation with another football junky, or just read it for the enjoyment of the league.

GVGReport WK 16 SSN 46

Email me with questions. GVGioia@gmail.com

Here is what we found the week for the BW Rating System:

• The home team running game vs the visiting team running defense
• The home team passing game vs the visiting passing defense
• The visiting team rushing game vs the home team rushing defense
• The visiting team passing game vs the home team passing defense

Dolphins vs Patriots
MIA offense has the advantage in passing against NEP defense
NEP defense has no advantage in rushing against MIA offense
NEP offense has the advantage in passing against MIA defense
MIA defense has no advantage in rushing against NEP offense
This calculates out to a close game but…

Browns vs Ravens
BAL defense will control in passing against CLE offense
CLE offense has a slight edge in rushing against BAL defense
CLE defense has no advantage in passing against BAL offense
BAL offense has no advantage in rushing against CLE defense
This also calculates out to a close game but I just can’t see it.

Cards vs Bengals
CIN defense has the advantage in passing against ARI offense
ARI offense will control in rushing against CIN defense
ARI defense has the advantage in passing against CIN offense
ARI defense has no advantage in rushing against CIN offense
Looks like the Cards by a score

Vikings vs Redskins
WAS defense has a slight edge in passing against MIN offense
MIN offense has the advantage in rushing against WAS defense
WAS offense will destroy in passing against MIN defense
MIN defense will destroy in rushing against WAS offense
Redskins light it up in the air

Broncos vs Bills
DEN offense will destroy in passing against BUF defense
DEN offense has the edge in rushing against BUF defense
DEN defense has a slight edge in passing against BUF offense
DEN defense will kill in rushing against BUF offense
Broncos in all categories

Rams vs Steelers
PIT defense will kill in passing against STL offense
PIT defense will kill in rushing against STL offense
PIT offense has the edge in passing against STL defense
PIT offense has a slight edge in rushing against STL defense
Steelers in all categories

Giants vs Jets
NYG offense has no advantage in passing against NYJ defense
NYJ defense will kill in rushing against NYG offense
NYJ offense has the edge in passing against NYG defense
NYJ offense will dominate in rushing against NYG defense
Jets win? Huh, Jets win.

Bucs vs Panthers
CAR defense has no advantage in passing against TAM offense
CAR defense will control in rushing against TAM offense
CAR offense has a slight edge in passing against TAM defense
CAR offense will kill in rushing against TAM defense
Panthers to dominate

Jaguars vs Titans
TEN defense has the advantage in passing against JAC offense
TEN defense will kill in rushing against JAC offense
TEN offense has a slight edge in passing against JAC defense
TEN offense has a slight edge in rushing against JAC defense
Does Chris Johnson get 300 yards today? He’s got a taped up ankle but maybe.

Raiders vs Chiefs
KAN defense has the edge in passing against OAK offense
KAN defense has the advantage in rushing against OAK offense
OAK defense will kill in passing against KAN offense
KAN offense has a slight edge in rushing against OAK defense
If the Chiefs can pass they can win.

Chargers vs Lions
SDC offense will control in passing against DET defense
SDC offense has clear advantage in rushing against DET defense
DET offense has the edge in passing against SDC defense
DET offense will destroy in rushing against SDC defense
High scoring game.

Eagles vs Cowboys
DAL defense has the advantage in passing against PHI offense
PHI offense has clear advantage in rushing against DAL defense
DAL offense will destroy in passing against PHI defense
DAL offense has the advantage in rushing against PHI defense
Calcs say a Cowboys win but division games are so emotional.

Niners vs Seahawks
SEA defense has the edge in passing against SFF offense
SEA defense has no advantage in rushing against SFF offense
SFF defense has clear advantage in passing against SEA offense
SFF defense has clear advantage in rushing against SEA offense
A low scoring game is in store here.

Bears vs Packers
GBP defense will control in passing against CHI offense
CHI offense will control in rushing against GBP defense
GBP offense has clear advantage in passing against CHI defense
CHI defense has no advantage in rushing against GBP offense
A closer game than you would think.

Falcons vs Saints
ATL offense has the advantage in passing against NOS defense
ATL offense has no advantage in rushing against NOS defense
NOS offense will kill in passing against ATL defense
NOS offense will dominate in rushing against ATL defense
Another high scoring game.