The GVG Report

Keeping the talking heads honest, since 1979

November 25th, 2008

Which NFL Team Has the Most Difficult Schedule?

At the beginning of the season I took a look at each team's strength of schedule and noted that New England had the easiest schedule and Pittsburgh had the hardest. That was based on last year's results though.

What I want to see is who has the most difficult schedule based on this year’s results. As in... what was each team's opponent’s record at the week they played them? What I found may shock you... Just kidding, but I did not expect some of these results.

Team    Opp % Opp Record

Packers  58%    (31 - 22) Raiders  57%    (32 - 24) Chiefs      57%    (32 - 24) Lions      57%    (33 - 25) Bengals  57%    (29 - 22) Giants      56%    (32 - 25) Rams       56%    (32 - 25) Cowboys  55%    (29 - 24) Cards        54%    (30 - 26) Seahawks 53%    (31 - 27) Ravens        53%    (31 - 27) Patriots    53%    (31 - 27) Falcons    53%    (29 - 26) Eagles       53%    (29 - 26) Browns       53%    (29 - 26) Chargers  52%    (27 - 25) Colts      52%    (29 - 27) Titans      51%    (27 - 26) Vikings      50%    (27 - 27) Jets      50%    (28 - 28) Dolphins 46%    (26 - 30) Steelers 45%    (25 - 30) Jaguars  45%    (25 - 30) Saints     44%    (24 - 30) Bears     44%    (24 - 30) Niners     44%    (23 - 29) Redskins 43%    (22 - 29) Broncos 43%    (23 - 31) Bucs     42%    (22 - 31) Panthers 41%    (22 - 32) Texans     41%    (24 - 35) Bills     37%    (21 - 35) The Bills had the easiest schedule and they are only 6-5.

The Packers played the Lions in week 1 with a 0-1 record, in week 2 they played Dallas who was 2-0. Week 3 Tampa Bay was 2-1 and week 4 Atlanta was 2-2. That’s a combined record of 6-4. In week 5 they played Seattle at 1-3 and week 6 was Indy at 3-2. That’s a combined record of 10-9. Then they had a bye and in week 8 they played the Titans at 7-0, Vikings at 4-4 the Bears at 5-4 and the Saints at 5-5. For a combined record of 31-22 (58% winning). Now, most of that was the Titans.

This can be misleading. Let’s look at how many teams played teams with winning records at the time.

Team         Opp's with winning records

Cowboys    7 Rams    7 Bengals    6 Browns    6 Raiders    6 Eagles    6 Bucs    6 Panthers    5 Lions    5 Packers    5 Dolphins    5 Patriots    5 Giants    5 Jets    5 Chargers    5 Seahawks    5 Redskins    5 Cards    4 Falcons    4 Ravens    4 Bears    4 Texans    4 Jaguars    4 Chiefs    4 Saints    4 Niners    4 Titans    4 Broncos    3 Colts    3 Vikings    3 Steelers    3 Bills    2

This shows the Cowboys and Rams with the toughest records. But let’s check just how winning is winning. I mean, were they playing teams that were 5-2 or 5-4?

Team            Sum Opp winning %

Browns    6.094 Bengals    6.067 Rams    6.052 Eagles    6.022 Cowboys    6.005 Lions    5.738 Chiefs    5.694 Packers    5.572 Chargers    5.537 Dolphins    5.377 Redskins    5.370 Raiders    5.310 Patriots    5.220 Bucs    5.187 Texans    5.176 Ravens    5.148 Cards    5.006 Vikings    4.995 Bears    4.911 Jaguars    4.883 Seahawks    4.690 Jets    4.664 Steelers    4.639 Panthers    4.533 Saints    4.498 Falcons    4.408 Giants    4.367 Colts    4.198 Titans    4.041 Broncos    3.920 Niners    3.814 Bills    3.463

This shows the Browns, Bengals Rams, Eagles and Cowboys played teams with really good records. For instance, the Rams played the Giants at 1-0, the Bills at 3-0, the Skins at 4-1, Dallas at 4-2, the Patriots at 4-2, the Cards at 4-3 and the Jets at 5-3. That’s a pretty tough schedule. The Browns and Bengals have a tough schedule because they have to play the Steelers and Ravens twice. And they have yet to play the Colts, Titans and Steelers. The Eagles had to play the Giants, Cowboys and the Steelers and Ravens. And have yet to play the Cards, Giants, Skins and Cowboys. The Cowboys played the Eagles at 1-0, Packers at 2-0, Skins at 2-1, Cards at 3-2, Bucs at 5-2, Giants at 6-1 and the Skins at 6-3. And they still have to play the Steelers, Giants and Ravens.

So far, the teams with the toughest schedules are the Cowboys, Eagles, Rams and Browns. Trial by fire. Tough opponents make teams better.

Filed under Football Studies
Tagged with difficult, nfl, schedule