Steroids in MLB
I have been studying the use of steroids in MLB for the last 2 years and decided to put some info down. I read Shadow of the Game and wanted to look into it more. Through my studies I have prepared a 5 part series documenting the information I have found and how I came to my conclusions.
Part I: Alex Rodriguez and the Steroids (was it really only 3 years?) Part II: Historic player stats as a comparison Part III: Stats of known steroid users Part IV: The Texas Rangers 2001 to 2003 Part V: Other players and stats that don't make sense unless...
Part I: Alex Rodriguez and the Steroids
I did some studying on Alex Rodriguez and the fact that he admitted taking steroids from 2001 to 2003 and wanted to see what the stats say about his usage.
I believe that through statistics it is possible to see almost all the players who took steroids. My basis is that if you use steroids you are using them for either or both of two reasons; because you are injured and want to recover faster or you want to be stronger and faster than you were.
If this is the case, then in the latter case I should see in a players statistics (if they used steroids for strength and power) an increase in certain categories.
If a players speed was increased, it would be difficult to see in his stats where this might apply. Maybe he might get a double instead of a single or his steals would increase or he would be able to field better by covering more distance. I discounted checking players for this aspect of steroids only because it was too difficult to distill.
But, if a players power or strength were to increase this would show up on his total bases or his home runs or his slugging percentage. This is easy to distill since all the stats are available. Barry Bonds once laughed and said that just because you are on steroids doesn't mean you can hit home runs. Well, if you normally popped out to left and now they go an additional 20 feet for a home run... it does. And that is what happens. All these guys can hit the ball, its just whether they have the power to clear the fence or not.
My hypothesis is that if a player was using steroids he will hit more home runs and his ratio of at bats to home runs (AB/HR) would decrease from his normal ratio (meaning it takes fewer at bats to hit each home run because he's just stronger). Also, his slugging percentage would increase from his normal (not using steroids level) percentage to the enhanced level because of the homers mostly.
Now A-Rod said he used from 2001 to 2003, therefore we should see a decrease in his AB/HR rating and an increase in his slugging over that period of time.
Fig1. Alex Rodriguez Career Stats
His numbers are very good for his entire career. In his first full year at Seattle in 96, he hit 36 homers for an AB/HR rating of 16.69 and a slugging percent over 600. Thats good.
These stats held till 1998 (year 3) and then they got real good from 99 (year 4) to 2005 (year 10) where he posted a 13 AB/HR rating and a 594 slugging. There really is not much difference in his stats between 99 and 05. The years 01 to 03 were a little better but very similar to 99 and 05 year 10). A-Rod says he only used from 01 to 03 but his stats say 99 to 05. The question is, why would he use in 01 if his numbers were already great in 99 and 00? He said he wanted to live up to his contract.
In 07 (year 12) his numbers were incredible. The best of his entire career. An AB/HR rating of 10.8 and 645 slugging. You have to assume that random testing was going on in 07 so his numbers are real right? Don't know. Was he taking human growth hormone which is impossible to detect because its natural and doesn't stay in the body long? His numbers dropped to 14.21 and 578 in 08 (year 13). What will they be in 09? He will be in his 14th year this year. I would not be surprised if they went to 16 and 560 this year (his pre-juice numbers).
Was he being totally honest in his Peter Gammons interview when he said he didn't know what he injected? For a professional athlete to say that, right there is pure BS. He probably studied it 9 ways to Sunday. He also said his cousin injected him in the Dominican Republic. That's too perfect because its probably legal there. Its also BS because you need to take that stuff regularly to get the full effect and I don' think he was flying down to Punta Cana every 3 weeks to get set up again.
A-Rod did the right thing in admitting usage and expounding a little but he's not telling everything. You can't go the Bonds and Clemens route and deny knowledge or deny usage when you definitely knew and you definitely used. Those guys will probably go to jail and won't get into the Hall. Because he admitted it, I think A-Rod still has a shot at the Hall unless info comes out that he used in years other than 01 to 03. Then he's dead.
Next segment... Part II. Historic players that no way could have been juicing because it wasn't invented yet. And how do their career number variations compare to A-Rods.